A quick review of the seasonality shows that August has been a poor month for bulls while September has been terrible. I speculate that nothing will change for 2016. Please continue below.
Wyckoff Distribution Review
Wyckoff Accumulation Review
Bar Chart (Monthly)
I had a difficult time making since of what was going on in Diamond Offshore Drilling until I was able to step back twice. This brought me to a monthly chart. I suggest taking a quick look then try to review the Wyckoff schematics above.
Point and Figure Chart
This is challenging to read. I believe the accumulation target remains possible; however, the distribution present on the daily bar chart below suggest this next consolidation is distribution. This is reasonable if we keep it in context of what the daily timeframe is doing within the monthly time frame.
I believe prices will drop as projected to/near $17. This will become a “BEUC” (see accumulation schematic) and contribute to longer term accumulation phase.
Bar Chart (Daily)
Although it is brief, this is probably one of my favorite Wyckoff reviews. I see prices dropping to $17. This is an important level of long term support as noted on the monthly chart. If prices hold, we may be seeing a larger scale accumulation phase and a target $42 or greater.